Manraj Aujla's blog

Prices jumped 4.2% ($43K) in February! Ready for another hot spring market? I wouldn't hold my breath. This figure is quite misleading and even towards the end of March, the 'spring' market still doesn't feel like it is upon us. Could this be due to the extra cold winter this year? Possibly, but that's likely not the primary reason. The major reason is due to tariffs and uncertainty around job security and the economy that is causing many buyers to pause. When buyers don't act, inventory builds and prices could soon follow (in the other direction).

The table above doesn't really tell us...

The GTA Real Estate Market entered 2024 without a lot of optimism. Sales in the back half of 2023 were dismal and prices had been trending lower. There wasn't really any indication that inflation was fully under control. The one saving grace? Inventory was still relatively low with apx. 10,000 listings heading into 2024. Apparently that coupled with better inflation data was enough to spur the market. January saw a 5% drop but numbers don't tell the whole story. Showing and buying activity was picking up, listings that hadn't sold were starting to move and overall sentiment was much...

I'm going to start with nobody knows where prices will go in 2025! I'd be a bit skeptical of anyone that tells you they know with 100% certainty. Chances are those within the industry will push a positive narrative and those looking to get into the market will suggest prices are bound to crash. The reality is that we have been in a relatively stable market for the past 2 years and this environment provides less risk than when prices were shooting up in 2021 and 2022.

3 reasons prices could go up in 2025:

1) Lower Rates will lead to improved affordability but perhaps more importantly, will...

Prices went up marginally in October. It's still a surprise that prices are holding up so well given what we are seeing on the ground level...

I think it's fair to say that the average price is not necessarily indicative of today's market and prices still likely have short-term downward pressure. The key metrics all support this....sales to new listings ratio remains very low. For every sale happening, there are apx. 3 new listings coming out. Properties are sitting longer and for the first time in a while, properties are selling for under asking (on average).

Perhaps the biggest...

From the ground floor, real estate is slow right now. Buyer sentiment is low and sellers simply refuse to sell for lower prices leading to large gaps and deals not coming together. September numbers came in a shock to many as prices increased in the month of September (+$37K, 3.4%).

My hypothesis is that 1) part of this is seasonality as you typically see better inventory in the fall vs. the summer and as a result prices are higher because the product is better and 2) partially due to sales mix as detached homes made up a larger portion of the total in Sept vs. Aug.

Digging...

Prices continued to decline (3.1%) in August, erasing a large portion of the gains we have seen since the start of the year. In May, we were up $158K and 15.2% for the year. That figure is now dropped to 'only' up $45K and 4.4% since the start of the year.

Most market indicators continue to move further and further away from a sellers' market. Properties are selling closer to asking price (vs. 104.8% earlier this year), although this is also related to less homes trying the 'offer night' strategy due its lower success recently. Properties are also taking longer to sell as average...

While the summer slowdown started to be felt at the beginning of summer, July's numbers came in significantly lower than June. Prices dropped $63K (5.4%) vs. June. This means we are more or less back to pricing from March earlier this year.

There's really 2 major factors. One is interest rates have made qualifying tougher for prospective buyers and also, reduced buyer sentiment. Whereas earlier in the year, buyers jumped in full force with the expectation that rates would be dropping later this year, thoughts are that rates may be higher for longer than anticipated. The other reason...

Prices fell (1.2%) for the first time all year in what may be a trend that continues. Inventory has finally started to build and most stats are beginning to trend away from a 'sellers' market'. This is something we had alluded to last month. Is this a sign of things to come OR is this just the seasonal summer slow-down.

It's hard to say but one thing is for sure...the Bank of Canada raising rates has made buyers hesitate. This impacts buyer sentiment more than anything as most consumers have been opting for fixed rates. The issue...fixed rates have seen huge swings upwards in the...

Home prices continued their uptrend, increasing 3.7% vs. April and are now up almost $160K (15.3%) since the start of the year. How is this sustainable? It really makes no sense.

Fortunately (for buyers), inventory in the past 3 weeks has started to come on and we are up apx. 10-15% listings depending on where you are. This combined with fixed rates increasing recently AND the Bank of Canada increasing their benchmark rate once again has some buyers hitting the brakes. The consensus is also that we will see another rate hike before the year is over. Homes are still selling and...

Are we back in the heat of the 2022 spring market? It sure is starting to feel that way. Since the start of 2023, prices are up more than 11% and increased by 4% vs. last month! The story continues to be low inventory as new listings were down 38.3% vs. April 2022 whereas demand (sales) was only down 5.2%. Active inventory now sits 20.8% lower than last year.