Trouble Looming in the GTA Housing Market?

Prices jumped 4.2% ($43K) in February! Ready for another hot spring market? I wouldn't hold my breath. This figure is quite misleading and even towards the end of March, the 'spring' market still doesn't feel like it is upon us. Could this be due to the extra cold winter this year? Possibly, but that's likely not the primary reason. The major reason is due to tariffs and uncertainty around job security and the economy that is causing many buyers to pause. When buyers don't act, inventory builds and prices could soon follow (in the other direction).

The table above doesn't really tell us much. However, here are a few interesting trends that do a better job of painting a picture of the market:

• The first 2 months of 2025 experienced apx. 22.5% less sales than the same time in 2024
• February 2025 saw 27.4% fewer transactions vs. February 2024
• Active listings are 76% higher (19,536)

This all looks quite bleak for the outlook of real estate in the short-term, however a few positives:

• The US recently said they may not put tariffs into place on April 2nd (this may give buyers more comfort as it now appears that they could be more of a negotiating ploy than anything else
• Rates today are hovering around the low 4% vs. the mid to high 4% to start 2024

Is the spring market just delayed or is it skipping 2025 altogether? It's tough to predict with certainty but here are a few charts that highlight what's likely in store.

Ignore March 2025 as the data is incomplete but it's alarming that the # of sales in February were easily the lowest in the past 15 years! To make matters worse, take a look at active inventory:

Active listings to start the year are higher than they have been in the past 15 years! One thing is for sure, while there may be a 'few' positives, there is definitely more risk of prices falling lower in the short-term due to economic uncertainty, tariff impacts and supply/demand dynamics!

Based on all of this, what do you think is in store for GTA real estate in 2025?